Democratic · 266 EV
The Blue Wall alone
Wins PA · MI · WI
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin leave a Democratic nominee four votes short — the reapportioned map means the old Midwest firewall no longer finishes the job by itself.
Current electoral vote tally
Democratic
226
93 toss-up
270 to win
Republican
219
No nominee at 270 — the toss-ups decide it
Interactive 2028 Map — Click a State to Change Its Rating
- Solid Democratic
- Likely Democratic
- Toss-up
- Likely Republican
- Solid Republican
The Seven 2028 Battlegrounds
| State | Electoral votes | Share of toss-up pool | State guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 19 | 20% | Read the Pennsylvania outlook |
| North Carolina | 16 | 17% | Read the North Carolina outlook |
| Georgia | 16 | 17% | Read the Georgia outlook |
| Michigan | 15 | 16% | Read the Michigan outlook |
| Arizona | 11 | 12% | Read the Arizona outlook |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 11% | Read the Wisconsin outlook |
| Nevada | 6 | 6% | Read the Nevada outlook |
Six Paths to 270
Democratic · 272 EV
Blue Wall plus Nevada
Wins PA · MI · WI · NV
The narrowest credible Democratic win: 272 electoral votes, with a single Omaha-style district or one Rust Belt slip enough to erase it.
Democratic · 277 EV
Midwest sweep plus Arizona
Wins PA · MI · WI · AZ
Swapping Nevada for Arizona buys a slightly wider cushion and a second Sun Belt organizing base for downballot races.
Democratic · 290 EV
The Sun Belt path
Wins AZ · GA · NC · NV · PA
A coalition built on diversifying metros rather than the industrial Midwest — but it still requires Pennsylvania as the anchor.
Republican · 291 EV
The Republican firewall
Wins NC · GA · AZ · NV · PA
Carrying the three Sun Belt battlegrounds plus Nevada and Pennsylvania clears 270 without Michigan or Wisconsin.
Republican · 316 EV
The full Republican sweep
Wins PA · MI · WI · NV · AZ · GA · NC
All seven toss-ups, a near-mirror of the 2024 national environment — and the ceiling most modelers treat as the realistic upper bound.
How the 2028 Electoral College Works
There are 538 electoral votes: 435 matching House seats, 100 matching Senate seats and three for the District of Columbia. A nominee needs 270 to win outright; a 269–269 tie sends the presidential election to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation casts one vote. The 2028 allocation is identical to 2024 because reapportionment follows the 2030 census, so the map below is fixed for this cycle.
Every state except Maine and Nebraska awards its electors winner-take-all. Those two split by congressional district, which is why single districts in Omaha and northern Maine can matter in a close count — and why several of the scenarios above sit within a handful of votes of the line.