Red State or Blue State?
North Carolina is a light red state. Republicans have carried it in every presidential election since Barack Obama's narrow 2008 win, but usually by only three to four points, and Democrats frequently win the governorship — making it competitive without being a true tossup.
Republican in every presidential race since 2008
North Carolina 2028 Primary Outlook
Unaffiliated voters, now the largest registration bloc in the state, can choose either primary ballot, which gives moderate and crossover-appeal candidates a real path. Black voters remain the core of the Democratic primary coalition.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 21% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 16% |
| Josh Shapiro | 13% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 36% |
| Ron DeSantis | 17% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 11% |
North Carolina 2028 General Election Outlook
Sixteen electoral votes and the most likely Democratic expansion target on the 2028 map. Urban-crescent turnout versus eastern rural margins decides it.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +3.2 |
| 2020 | Republican | R +1.3 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +3.7 |
| 2012 | Republican | R +2.0 |