Lean Republican · NC

Is North Carolina a Red or Blue State?

North Carolina is the perennial near-miss for Democrats: close enough to contest in every cycle, but decided for Republicans in all but one presidential election this century. Rapid growth in the Research Triangle and Charlotte keeps narrowing the gap.

Electoral votes
16
R +3.2 in 2024

Red State or Blue State?

North Carolina is a light red state. Republicans have carried it in every presidential election since Barack Obama's narrow 2008 win, but usually by only three to four points, and Democrats frequently win the governorship — making it competitive without being a true tossup.

Classification
Light red state
Electoral votes
16
2024 margin
R +3.2
Primary order
#10

Republican in every presidential race since 2008

North Carolina 2028 Primary Outlook

Unaffiliated voters, now the largest registration bloc in the state, can choose either primary ballot, which gives moderate and crossover-appeal candidates a real path. Black voters remain the core of the Democratic primary coalition.

Democratic field

CandidateSupport
Gavin Newsom21%
Gretchen Whitmer16%
Josh Shapiro13%

Republican field

CandidateSupport
J.D. Vance36%
Ron DeSantis17%
Glenn Youngkin11%

North Carolina 2028 General Election Outlook

Sixteen electoral votes and the most likely Democratic expansion target on the 2028 map. Urban-crescent turnout versus eastern rural margins decides it.

Recent Presidential Results

YearWinnerMargin
2024RepublicanR +3.2
2020RepublicanR +1.3
2016RepublicanR +3.7
2012RepublicanR +2.0