Red State or Blue State?
Wisconsin is a purple state and the tightest in the nation by recent margin. Milwaukee and Dane County anchor the Democratic vote against heavily Republican exurbs, producing near-tied outcomes cycle after cycle regardless of the national environment.
Four straight presidential races inside 1.5 points
Wisconsin 2028 Primary Outlook
An open primary lets independents participate, so late-deciding voters can meaningfully swing a contested race. University-town turnout in Madison is a reliable early indicator of progressive enthusiasm.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | 24% |
| Gavin Newsom | 19% |
| Josh Shapiro | 14% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 30% |
| Ron DeSantis | 16% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 10% |
Wisconsin 2028 General Election Outlook
Ten electoral votes that both parties will treat as a must-win. Expect per-capita advertising spend here to exceed nearly every other state in the closing weeks.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +0.9 |
| 2020 | Democratic | D +0.6 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +0.8 |
| 2012 | Democratic | D +6.9 |