Battleground · WI

Is Wisconsin a Red or Blue State?

No state has been closer more consistently. Wisconsin's presidential margins have stayed under a point and a half in four consecutive cycles, and its sharply polarized geography leaves almost no persuadable middle to contest.

Electoral votes
10
R +0.9 in 2024

Red State or Blue State?

Wisconsin is a purple state and the tightest in the nation by recent margin. Milwaukee and Dane County anchor the Democratic vote against heavily Republican exurbs, producing near-tied outcomes cycle after cycle regardless of the national environment.

Classification
Purple state
Electoral votes
10
2024 margin
R +0.9
Primary order
#7

Four straight presidential races inside 1.5 points

Wisconsin 2028 Primary Outlook

An open primary lets independents participate, so late-deciding voters can meaningfully swing a contested race. University-town turnout in Madison is a reliable early indicator of progressive enthusiasm.

Democratic field

CandidateSupport
Gretchen Whitmer24%
Gavin Newsom19%
Josh Shapiro14%

Republican field

CandidateSupport
J.D. Vance30%
Ron DeSantis16%
Glenn Youngkin10%

Wisconsin 2028 General Election Outlook

Ten electoral votes that both parties will treat as a must-win. Expect per-capita advertising spend here to exceed nearly every other state in the closing weeks.

Recent Presidential Results

YearWinnerMargin
2024RepublicanR +0.9
2020DemocraticD +0.6
2016RepublicanR +0.8
2012DemocraticD +6.9