Red State or Blue State?
Arizona is a purple state trending back toward Republicans. Long a Republican stronghold, it flipped Democratic in 2020 by fewer than 11,000 votes before swinging back in 2024, and roughly a third of registered voters belong to neither major party.
Classification
Purple state
Electoral votes
11
2024 margin
R +5.5
Primary order
#9
Two of the last three cycles decided by under six points
Arizona 2028 Primary Outlook
Arizona's closed presidential preference election excludes its very large independent bloc, so primary results here often diverge sharply from general-election polling. Border and water policy dominate the issue environment on both ballots.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 25% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 16% |
| Josh Shapiro | 12% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 34% |
| Ron DeSantis | 18% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 8% |
Arizona 2028 General Election Outlook
Eleven electoral votes that stay on the board in most scenarios. Maricopa County alone casts around 60 percent of the statewide vote.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +5.5 |
| 2020 | Democratic | D +0.3 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +3.5 |
| 2012 | Republican | R +9.1 |