Republicans · August 3, 2026
J.D. Vance 2028 polls: a frontrunner with a hard ceiling
Vance holds the largest single block of Republican primary support in our aggregate, but the shape of that support matters more than the topline.
Democrats · August 2, 2026 · 6 min
Democrats enter 2028 without a frontrunner — and that's the story
A field where the leader polls in the twenties behaves very differently from one with a clear favorite. Here's what that means for the calendar.
Explainer · July 30, 2026 · 7 min
How to read a 2028 primary poll without getting fooled
Margin of error, sample type, house effects and undecideds — the four numbers that matter more than the topline.
Map · July 28, 2026 · 6 min
The seven states that will decide the 2028 election
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada hold the electoral votes both parties need.
Explainer · July 25, 2026 · 6 min
The 2028 primary calendar and why the order matters more than the dates
Sequence, not size, decides nominations. A guide to the early window, Super Tuesday and the delegate math behind both.
Polls · July 22, 2026 · 6 min
Newsom vs. Vance: the matchup both bases expect
The most-watched hypothetical of the cycle would be a nationalized, high-turnout election fought almost entirely in seven states.