Red State or Blue State?
Pennsylvania is a purple state, and arguably the purest swing state in the country. It has been decided by under two points in each of the last three presidential elections, alternating between the parties, with Philadelphia and its collar counties pulling one direction and the rural interior the other.
Three sub-two-point presidential margins in a row
Pennsylvania 2028 Primary Outlook
A closed primary means independents are locked out, so county-party endorsements and labor backing matter disproportionately. Josh Shapiro's statewide performance makes him the organizational favorite on the Democratic side.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | 41% |
| Gavin Newsom | 15% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 13% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 32% |
| Ron DeSantis | 15% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 12% |
Pennsylvania 2028 General Election Outlook
Nineteen electoral votes and the largest single prize on the battleground map. Turnout differential between Philadelphia and the western counties is the metric to watch on election night.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +1.7 |
| 2020 | Democratic | D +1.2 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +0.7 |
| 2012 | Democratic | D +5.4 |