Battleground · GA

Is Georgia a Red or Blue State?

Georgia's transformation from safe Republican territory to genuine battleground is the defining demographic story of the last decade, driven almost entirely by growth in the Atlanta metro and rising Black and Asian American turnout.

Electoral votes
16
R +2.2 in 2024

Red State or Blue State?

Georgia is now a purple state, though it leans marginally Republican. It was reliably red from 1996 through 2016, flipped Democratic in 2020 for the first time in a generation, and returned to the Republican column in 2024 by roughly two points — the definition of a competitive state in transition.

Classification
Purple state
Electoral votes
16
2024 margin
R +2.2
Primary order
#8

Flipped to Democrats in 2020, back to Republicans in 2024

Georgia 2028 Primary Outlook

Black voters make up close to half the Democratic primary electorate, making Georgia a second major test of the coalition that South Carolina previews. On the Republican side, the split between establishment and populist wings runs deeper here than in most southern states.

Democratic field

CandidateSupport
Gavin Newsom22%
Gretchen Whitmer15%
Josh Shapiro12%

Republican field

CandidateSupport
J.D. Vance35%
Ron DeSantis18%
Glenn Youngkin9%

Georgia 2028 General Election Outlook

Sixteen electoral votes and the largest southern battleground. Suburban Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry counties are where the state is won or lost.

Recent Presidential Results

YearWinnerMargin
2024RepublicanR +2.2
2020DemocraticD +0.2
2016RepublicanR +5.1
2012RepublicanR +7.8