Red State or Blue State?
Texas is a red state. Republicans have won it every cycle since 1980, and the 2024 margin was wider than 2020's, complicating the narrative that the state is on the verge of flipping. Its urban counties are strongly Democratic, but rural and increasingly South Texas margins offset them.
Classification
Red state, narrowing
Electoral votes
40
2024 margin
R +13.7
Primary order
#12
Republican in eleven consecutive presidential elections
Texas 2028 Primary Outlook
An open primary and a huge, geographically dispersed electorate make Texas an expensive media-market fight rather than an organizing contest. Delegate allocation rules reward broad statewide performance over regional strength.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 23% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 14% |
| Josh Shapiro | 11% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 37% |
| Ron DeSantis | 20% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7% |
Texas 2028 General Election Outlook
Forty electoral votes that remain out of reach for Democrats in a normal environment. Any 2028 map where Texas is genuinely competitive is a national landslide.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +13.7 |
| 2020 | Republican | R +5.6 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +9.0 |
| 2012 | Republican | R +15.8 |