Red State or Blue State?
Ohio is a red state. It picked the winner in every presidential election from 1964 through 2020 with two exceptions, but has voted Republican by double digits in the last two cycles as its working-class counties realigned. Democrats still occasionally win statewide, keeping it out of the safest tier.
Classification
Red state
Electoral votes
17
2024 margin
R +11.2
Primary order
#14
Republican in three consecutive presidential elections
Ohio 2028 Primary Outlook
J.D. Vance's Senate base and statewide organization make Ohio his strongest large-state firewall. Semi-open rules allow limited crossover, which historically has not been enough to change outcomes here.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | 22% |
| Gavin Newsom | 18% |
| Josh Shapiro | 15% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 46% |
| Ron DeSantis | 14% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7% |
Ohio 2028 General Election Outlook
Seventeen electoral votes that are effectively off the board. Ohio's value in 2028 is as a delegate prize and a message-testing ground for industrial-Midwest economic appeals.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +11.2 |
| 2020 | Republican | R +8.0 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +8.1 |
| 2012 | Democratic | D +3.0 |