Red State or Blue State?
Florida is a red state today. It was decided by roughly a point in 2000 and 2012, but Republicans have since won it by growing margins — over thirteen points in 2024 — driven by gains among Cuban and other Latino voters in South Florida and sustained conservative in-migration.
Classification
Red state
Electoral votes
30
2024 margin
R +13.1
Primary order
#13
Republican margins have widened in three straight cycles
Florida 2028 Primary Outlook
A closed primary and Ron DeSantis's two gubernatorial wins make Florida his firewall in the Republican contest. Democratic registration has fallen behind Republican registration statewide for the first time in modern history.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 22% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 14% |
| Josh Shapiro | 12% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | 39% |
| J.D. Vance | 30% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7% |
Florida 2028 General Election Outlook
Thirty electoral votes that no longer appear on realistic Democratic target lists. Its 2028 relevance is delegate math and fundraising, not the general-election map.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Republican | R +13.1 |
| 2020 | Republican | R +3.4 |
| 2016 | Republican | R +1.2 |
| 2012 | Democratic | D +0.9 |