Red State or Blue State?
California is a blue state and has been since 1992. Democrats hold every statewide office and carry the presidential vote by roughly twenty points or more, which makes it decisive in the primary and irrelevant in the general.
Democratic in nine consecutive presidential elections
California 2028 Primary Outlook
The delegate haul is so large that campaigns must build California infrastructure long before the early states vote. Gavin Newsom's statewide profile gives him a substantial home-field advantage in both name recognition and donor access.
Democratic field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 44% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 12% |
| Josh Shapiro | 9% |
Republican field
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 30% |
| Ron DeSantis | 18% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 9% |
California 2028 General Election Outlook
Fifty-four electoral votes that are not competitive. California's general-election role is as the Democratic Party's fundraising engine rather than a contested map.
Recent Presidential Results
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Democratic | D +20.1 |
| 2020 | Democratic | D +29.2 |
| 2016 | Democratic | D +30.1 |
| 2012 | Democratic | D +23.1 |