| J.D. Vance Republican · Declared | vs | Gavin Newsom Democratic · Declared |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% | Polling avg | 26.4% |
| -0.4 | 30-day change | +1.2 |
| -110 | Market line | +120 |
| $41.2M | Q2 raised | $38.7M |
| $68.9M | Cash on hand | $52.1M |
| 38% | Small dollar | 44% |
| 34% | Iowa | 22% |
| 29% | New Hampshire | 27% |
| 38% | South Carolina | 24% |
| 77 | Early-state staff | 73 |
| 19 | Field offices | 19 |
| Ohio | Home state | California |
| 43 | Age | 60 |
J.D. Vance in Brief
The sitting vice president enters the 2028 cycle as the closest thing the Republican field has to an incumbent, inheriting a national donor network and near-universal name recognition among primary voters.
Case for: Consolidated institutional support, the largest small-dollar file in the field, and a polling floor no rival has yet been able to crack.
Case against: Frontrunner status invites the full weight of the field's opposition research, and his numbers have drifted slightly in suburban and independent samples.
Full J.D. Vance tracker →Gavin Newsom in Brief
California's governor has spent the last two cycles building a national fundraising operation and a televised debate persona, and now converts that infrastructure into the best-funded Democratic campaign in the field.
Case for: Unmatched fundraising velocity, a disciplined national media strategy, and early organizational buildout across all four carve-out states.
Case against: California's record on cost of living and public safety gives rivals a ready-made contrast in Midwestern general-election battlegrounds.
Full Gavin Newsom tracker →